In the first quarter of 2026, the geopolitical fluctuations in the Middle East region and the recovery of energy infrastructure will go hand in hand, bringing short-term logistics and order pressure to China's alloy pipe exports, and a differentiated pattern of strong demand certainty in the medium and long term. As the second largest overseas market for Chinese alloy pipes, the trend in the Middle East directly affects the export pace throughout the year.
1、 Short term pressure: The month on month export in March weakened, and logistics and performance were hindered
Periodic observation of demand
Affected by the regional situation, core buyers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have suspended new inquiries, and the pace of project bidding and delivery has been delayed. It is expected that exports of alloy pipes to the Middle East will decline by 15% -20% month on month in March, with seamless pipes being more affected than welded pipes.
Logistics and cost surge
The passage through the Strait of Hormuz is restricted, and shipping companies have significantly increased war risk and surcharges. Some routes have suspended booking, resulting in longer delivery cycles and increased performance risks. The willingness of enterprises to accept orders has decreased.
Market structure impact
The Middle East accounts for nearly 40% of China's total seamless pipe exports, and the short-term reduction is difficult to be fully filled by markets such as Southeast Asia and South America. The overall export growth rate slightly slowed down in the first quarter.
2、 Long term support: driven by both energy and infrastructure, with extremely strong demand rigidity
Huge investment in oil and gas pipeline network
The Middle East plans to invest over 220 billion US dollars in oil, gas, and water infrastructure from 2026 to 2030, with pipeline procurement accounting for approximately 18%; The mileage of newly built/renovated oil and gas pipelines exceeds 20000 kilometers, and there is a rigid demand for sulfur resistant pipeline pipes, high-grade seamless pipes, and duplex steel alloy pipes.
National level projects are being implemented in large quantities
Saudi Arabia's 2030 Vision, NEOM New City, Red Sea Project and other large-scale projects are being promoted, and refining, seawater desalination, and hydrogen energy storage and transportation are driving the continuous growth of high-temperature, corrosion-resistant, and high-pressure special alloy pipes.
Accelerated stock updates
Iraq, Kuwait, Oman and other countries' old oil fields and pipelines have entered a centralized renewal cycle, API 5L、 Anti H ₂ S corrosion pipes have become standard, providing stable increment for high-end alloy pipes in China.
3、 Varieties and Market Trends
High growth varieties: sulfur resistant pipeline pipes, super duplex steel pipes, nickel based alloy pipes, heat-resistant alloy pipes for refining, hydrogen transmission pipelines.
Core markets: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Oman.
Price support: High end products have a significant premium, which can effectively hedge against rising shipping and compliance costs.
4、 Industry Outlook and Export Suggestions
Short term (1-2 quarters): Focus on ensuring performance, stabilizing old customers, and avoiding risks, with priority given to relatively stable channels such as Oman and Qatar.
Medium to long term (starting from Q3): After geopolitical easing, suppressed infrastructure and energy demand will be concentrated and released, and the Middle East will return to a high growth channel, becoming the core engine driving the export of alloy pipes.
Strategic direction: Accelerate API, ASME, GCC certification, focus on high-end pipes, replace low-priced volume with high added value and high reliability, and enhance risk resistance.
